Analysis Of Macroeconomic Variables Using Var Models On Inflation In Indonesia, 2020–2024
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33751/jhss.v10i1.57Keywords:
Inflation, minimum wage, unemployment rate, economic growth, financial developmentAbstract
This study aims to analyze the interactions among the minimum wage, unemployment rate, economic growth, and financial development in relation to inflation, as well as to identify causal relationship patterns among these variables. The research employs a quantitative approach using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis based on time-series data. Stationarity tests, optimal lag determination, stability tests, Granger causality tests, cointegration tests, and VECM estimation are conducted to examine the direction of relationships among variables and to estimate long-run effects in measuring the impact of each variable on inflation. The data utilized are secondary data obtained from official publications of relevant institutions and are analyzed using the E-Views statistical software. The results indicate that not all variables exhibit causal relationships. Inflation shows a one-way causal relationship with the unemployment rate, while financial development exhibits a one-way causal relationship with inflation. In addition, bidirectional causality is found between financial development and the minimum wage, as well as between financial development and economic growth. Long-run estimation results reveal that the minimum wage and unemployment rate have a positive and significant effect on inflation, whereas economic growth has a negative and significant effect on inflation. Financial development is also shown to have a positive effect on inflation. The findings underscore that inflation is influenced by a combination of labor market factors, macroeconomic conditions, and financial sector development; therefore, effective inflation control requires integrated and sustainable economic policies.
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